In October final 12 months, the world’s richest conspiracy theorist, Elon Musk, introduced plans for a robotaxi, the Tesla Cybercab.
Manufacturing would start he mentioned “in 2026”, earlier than correcting himself to “earlier than 2027”, as a result of “I are typically just a little optimistic with timeframes”.
That remark is an understatement inversely proportional to Musk’s wealth.
So it wasn’t shocking that Musk’s announcement of the US$30,000 ( A$44.5k) Cybercab – together with a 20-seat autonomous “Robovan” (with no timeframe) was met with loads of deja vu and scepticism.
“I really feel very assured predicting autonomous robotaxis for Tesla subsequent 12 months,” Musk mentioned. That confidence dates from a 2019 quote.
Waymo is already doing it in San Francisco. Musk is coping with US regulatory investigation into the autopilot programs on 2.4 million automobiles.
To be truthful to Musk, who, proper now, may need been on Mars quite than at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s house, had his predictions on inter-planetary area journey been correct (final 12 months he modified the 2024-26 timeline to 2028), usually delivers (Hyperloop excluded), simply not within the timeframes he predicts.
And whereas he’s ready to chop himself some slack, woe betide others making an attempt to learn the rooster entrails.
9 newspapers know-how editor David Swan turned Summer season seer over the break, penning a 2025 predictions column saying Musk will resign as Tesla boss.
“To be juggling management roles at X (previously Twitter), Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, the Boring Firm and Neuralink was already unsustainable. Musk now has wormed his approach into Trump’s internal circle, and can collectively lead the president-elect’s DOGE – Division of Authorities Effectivity – in a bid to slash billions in authorities expenditure,” NostraSwan wrote for the SMH, alongside predicting the demise of VR and Bitcoin doubling in worth to $200k.
“Musk has already discovered himself at loggerheads with MAGA diehards like Steve Bannon over immigration points, and the inauguration remains to be weeks away. He’s additionally been at loggerheads with the justice system, after a US choose blocked Musk’s $US56 billion ($90 billion) pay bundle from Tesla.
“After fixed controversies and distractions, it would all come to a head in 2025, and Musk will likely be pressured at hand over the reins at Tesla, an organization many mistakenly assume he based.”
It appears even Musk’s outrageous fortune can not ease his ego’s affected by the slings and arrows of the smallest slight. So the budding bureaucrat turned to his personal city sq., which is shedding tens of millions of customers, utilizing the Donald Trump playbook to bag the media.
The free speech absolutionist* (*absolution is granted provided that your view aligns with Musk’s, in any other case you’re cancelled), who this week fell out with former UK buddy Nigel Farage, retorted on the previous Twitter that “I predict that the Sydney Morning Herald will proceed to lose readership in 2025 for relentlessly mendacity to their viewers and boring them to loss of life”.
In fact the Muskolytes fell into line behind their hero. Swan took it on the chin, responding “Rattling, roasted”.
The story that upset the world’s richest man
Tesla gross sales tank
However Musk in all probability ought to be centered on declining Tesla gross sales, quite than the augury of an Antipodean journalist.
The EV maker’s Australian deliveries (and sure gross sales) tanked 17% in 2024, their first calendar 12 months fall, regardless of worth cuts of as much as $9500.
The Electrical Car Council reported 2024 deliveries of 38,347 new Teslas, down from 46,120 in 2023.
Musk’s model stays the market chief, accounting for 42% of Australian EV gross sales, however there’s a giant shift underway, with the expansion in different EV manufacturers up 29% final 12 months. General, annual gross sales grew by 4.7%, however had been dragged down by Tesla’s decline.
Globally, a decade of development ended for the carmaker, with the variety of Teslas delivered falling for the primary time, to 1.79 million, down from 1.81m in 2023.
And the jury stays out on the Cybertruck, with gross sales showing to be a good distance from the 1 million reservations Musk claimed.
Maybe everybody’s nonetheless ready for the 1000km vary Musk promised in 2015 a Tesla would have “for positive” by 2017. Or possibly the 1,2ookm vary he predicted by 2020.
Whereas SMH noticed its readership decline barely in 2024, it stays streaks forward of the competitors with greater than 7 million readers, so regardless of 9’s share worth, it would nonetheless be round lengthy after Musk has fallen out with Trump, as many predict.
Nevertheless if we apply a prediction leeway much like the the one granted to the present Telsa CEO, then Swan’s prognostication on Musk solely has to come back true a while earlier than 2035 to be as correct as lots of the statements made by a billionaire who mentioned, final March: “Simply to be tremendous clear, I’m not donating cash to both candidate for US President” earlier than contradicting himself inside months to again Donald Trump to the tune of US$242.6 million.
Typically it’s laborious to know what you’re going to do subsequent week, not to mention by the top of the 12 months, however with 2025 freshly underway, at the least we will agree we’re optimistic in regards to the future.
As John Lennon noticed almost 60 years in the past, tomorrow by no means is aware of.
