Within the weeks main as much as the Nov. 5 election that may sweep Donald Trump again into workplace, monetary advisor sentiment round each the financial system and the inventory market rose, practically matching year-to-date highs, in accordance with Wealthmanagement.com’s month-to-month Advisor Sentiment Index.
Sentiment over the financial system climbed seven factors greater to 110, indicating a broadly constructive view of the well being of the job market, enterprise exercise and different financial drivers. (A studying of 100 equals a very impartial view.) The extent of constructive sentiment on the financial system, whereas nonetheless extra muted than emotions across the fairness market, has not been greater since March of this yr.
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Virtually half (45%) of surveyed advisors stated the financial system was “good” or “wonderful”, with solely 19% holding a contrarian view. (37% had been impartial.)
Apparently, given the survey’s recorded sentiment earlier than the end result of the latest election was identified, extra advisors predicted the well being of the financial system would enhance over the subsequent yr. Over half (52%) imagine they may maintain a constructive view of the financial system by this time subsequent yr, in comparison with one-in-four (26%) who predict a extra pessimistic view.
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When requested to broaden on their views, advisors appeared to base their reply partially on inflation’s trajectory. Many are fearful a few re-acceleration, whereas others are extra optimistic about its management. Whereas the latest flip towards rate of interest cuts are considered as a stimulus, persistent cost-of-living pressures (e.g., meals and vitality costs) proceed to pressure customers.
Advisors highlighted persistent authorities deficits and rising debt as warning indicators muting their optimism in regards to the financial system.
Confidence within the fairness markets additionally climbed throughout the month, up three factors to 121. Most respondents (70%) think about the present state of the inventory market to be constructive. Solely 6% expressed a adverse sentiment.
That displays a sustained constructive view on the present state of markets amongst advisors held all through a lot of the previous yr, with solely a minor downturn over the summer season. Whereas the S&P 500 hovered flat for many of October, the broad fairness index was up 25% year-to-date headed into the November election.
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Advisors could also be starting to sense some froth within the markets, nevertheless.
Trying ahead six months, respondents are divided: 34% count on an enchancment within the markets, whereas 29% count on no change, and 37% count on a decline. They’re extra optimistic when wanting ahead 12 months, with 56% anticipating an enchancment.
The inventory market’s resilience and excessive valuations spark debate. Advisors anticipate elevated reliance on earnings for future efficiency, with warnings of overvaluation and potential corrections in 2025.
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Methodology, information assortment and evaluation by WealthManagement.com and Informa Have interaction. Methodology conforms to accepted advertising analysis strategies, practices and procedures. Starting in January 2024, WealthManagement.com started selling a quick month-to-month survey to energetic customers. Knowledge will likely be collected throughout the closing ten days of every month going ahead, with a aim of at the very least 100 monetary advisor respondents monthly. Respondents are requested for his or her view on the financial system and the inventory markets each at present, in six months and in a single yr. Responses are weighted and used to create an index tied to a impartial worth of 100. Over time, the ASI will present directional sentiment of retail-facing monetary advisors.
