Allan Lichtman, a historian and professor at American College typically referred to as the Nostradamus of presidential elections, has two notes for you: there isn’t any such factor as an October shock and Kamala Harris remains to be set to win.
Showing on CNN, Lichtman stated: “Nothing has modified. The largest fable in American politics is the so-called October shock. I’ve all the time issued my predictions earlier than then, and by no means change them.
He continued: “In 2016 for instance, we had the most important October shock, Donald Trump on tape bragging about sexually assaulting ladies, and plenty of ladies popping out and saying: ‘yeah, he did that to me.’ Even Republicans have been saying he was completed. I didn’t change my prediction of a Trump win.”
Lichtman was referring to an Entry Hollywood tape leaked in early October lower than a month away from election day, again in 2016 when he was working in opposition to Hillary Clinton. Trump was heard bragging in vulgar phrases about ladies. And look how that turned out. Lichtman has an virtually good monitor report of calling presidential elections over the previous 4 many years. This election 12 months, he’s predicting a Harris win, and he isn’t altering course, regardless of feeling extra anxious about it than ever earlier than.
“I’ve by no means skilled the sort of hate I’ve had heaped on me this time, which has made me very nervous. I’ve had hate that’s scurrilous, vulgar, threatening, violent…We’ve needed to notify the police we’ve needed to fortify our house. It’s been terribly upsetting.”
He continued: “The opposite factor is, I consider democracy is on the road on this election. If I’m unsuitable, so be it. You understand, I believe being unsuitable as soon as shouldn’t be going to discredit my system, however I believe if I’m unsuitable, then our democracy is in very severe peril. Democracy is treasured, however it may be destroyed and it’s virtually all the time destroyed from inside. And sadly, the pattern of this century has been the decline of democracy, everywhere in the world. And I’m frightened about our nation.”
In nationwide polls, Harris has the tiniest little bit of lead on Trump, but it surely actually is neck-and-neck. Both approach, even when it’s a fable, what was this 12 months’s so-called October shock for the Trump marketing campaign? Possibly the rally at Madison Sq. Backyard? Loads of headlines got here out of that one, however comic Tony Hinchcliffe’s feedback about Puerto Rico could take the cake.
Democrats in fact ran with it. Alternatively, Trump claimed he had “finished extra for Puerto Rico than any president by far, no person shut,” later including: “I’ll ship one of the best future for Puerto Ricans and for Hispanic People. Kamala will ship you poverty and crime.” Fortune’s Shawn Tully reported that Trump blew an enormous lead and that rally began the drop.
For the Harris marketing campaign, her billionaire surrogate Mark Cuban could have delivered a form of October shock, the final day of the month, too. On The View, when requested what he thinks about Trump seemingly not calling on former presidential candidate Nikki Haley for assist, he stated: “Donald Trump, you by no means see him round robust, clever ladies. Ever. It’s simply that easy. They’re intimidating to him. He doesn’t wish to be challenged by them.”
It appeared that he was talking in regards to the individuals Trump chooses to have round him on the marketing campaign path, however Cuban received plenty of warmth for what he stated. He later apologized for and clarified his feedback to counsel he is aware of many robust, clever ladies who’re voting for Trump, who help Trump, and who’ve labored with Trump.
Election day is tomorrow. We’ll see if Lichtman referred to as it proper—once more.
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