The 119th Congress was sworn in final Friday, marking the beginning of what’s anticipated to be a busy 12 months. Republicans management the White Home and each chambers of Congress and are mandated to get to work and accomplish that shortly. Now, everybody’s eyes are on what lawmakers will attempt to sort out and what roadblocks stand in the way in which of creating progress on President-Elect Donald Trump’s priorities inside the first 100 days of this new Congress.
Lawmakers have their work reduce out for them. Not solely will Congress want to start confirming Trump’s cupboard picks, hold the federal government funded past March and probably deal with the debt restrict, however they’ll additionally want to start work on one among Trump’s important priorities: tax reform and increasing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.
Cupboard Confirmations
Over the following a number of months, the higher chamber will work to substantiate lots of Trump’s cupboard picks. Trump shortly started naming folks to fill prime govt positions following the election. Now, the Senate might want to verify these nominated earlier than they’ll formally assume their new roles. Importantly, the Senate will search to substantiate nominees to serve in essential positions pretty shortly. It will most definitely embrace the Senate Finance Committee confirming Trump’s picks for Treasury Secretary, Inside Income Service Commissioner and the Assistant Treasury Secretary for Tax Coverage, all of whom have been named early on. These positions and the folks in them might be essential and influential throughout tax reform negotiations and the drafting of a tax bundle, so expediting their confirmations might be prime of thoughts for Senate Republicans. Different committees will do the identical, filling up a lot of their members’ calendars with interviews, hearings and votes.
Home Focus: Tax Priorities
The Home has a distinct, and a few would possibly say far trickier, process for the primary 100 days – making important progress on tax priorities to make sure the 2017 tax cuts don’t expire and extra marketing campaign guarantees will be applied. If it looks like we’ve been right here earlier than, it’s as a result of we’ve got. The final time Trump was in workplace was the final time Republicans had full management of Washington and overhauled the Tax Code. Now, they need to do it once more. Home Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has put ahead an bold timeline for the Home to cross a price range reconciliation bundle (extra on that in a bit) that may embrace a tax reform invoice by April.
The Home may have the pen first relating to drafting a tax bundle, and with the narrowest of margins within the Home, Republican management and Methods and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) might want to coalesce all Home Republicans. This implies Republicans should iron out variations inside their very own get together earlier than bringing a tax invoice to the ground. Many insurance policies will have to be negotiated, and concessions will have to be made to keep away from dropping essential Republican votes. These negotiations are underway, and a few sticking factors which have emerged are round border funding, eliminating the cap on the state and native tax deduction, vitality rollbacks and, for these deficit hawks, ensuring there are enough payfors.
Finances Reconciliation Course of
Republicans plan to make use of the price range reconciliation course of once more (they used it to cross the tax invoice in 2017). This device permits lawmakers to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote threshold and expedite the tax reform course of with out the assistance of Democrats. Nevertheless, that additionally means lawmakers should abide by extra guidelines and cross a price range decision earlier than beginning work on a legislative tax bundle. Utilizing price range reconciliation has proved helpful for partisan policymaking, nevertheless it comes with its personal challenges.
First, policymakers should agree on directions and budgetary thresholds in a price range decision. Solely then can Home Republicans start piecing collectively their priorities to create a tax reform bundle. We are able to anticipate to see many hearings and markups over the following a number of months as tax writers negotiate and work by way of numerous sticking factors.
Take into accout, whereas Johnson needs to cross a invoice out of the Home by April with the intent of getting a bundle to Trump’s desk by Memorial Day, the tax invoice will nonetheless must go to the Senate, the place it’s prone to be amended. Not solely will senators have their very own wishlist of priorities, but additionally, utilizing the price range reconciliation course of means the Senate Parliamentarian might want to undergo the bundle line by line to make sure all provisions observe the budgetary pointers. Something that doesn’t might be faraway from the invoice, and any modifications made within the Senate would require Home approval.
So, though the work has already begun to develop a price range reconciliation bundle, members’ priorities, following the reconciliation guidelines, and slim margins within the Home may very effectively decelerate the method and push the timeline later into the 12 months.
Extra Roadblocks
Along with tax reform and confirmations, lawmakers hold including to their must-do listing within the first few months of the 12 months. In December, Congress kicked the federal government funding deadline to March 14, which have to be addressed to keep away from a shutdown and necessary price range cuts. Moreover, the debt restrict went again into place this month, which means lawmakers should deal with it by this summer time to keep away from default. After which there’s all the pieces scheduled—Trump’s inauguration, get together retreats, particular election, and scheduled recesses—along with any unexpected developments that require coverage motion.
Lawmakers definitely have a prolonged to-do listing, and the primary 100 days will doubtless come and go within the blink of a watch. That mentioned, how Republicans start their work in these first few months will set the stage and expectations for the remainder of the 12 months.
